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Here's my prediction for the spring '11 season:

...in the order of first elimination up to champion

1. Mike Catherwood (1st to go)
2. Kirstie Alley
3. Wendy Williams
4. Chris Jericho
5. Kendra Wilkinson
6. Romeo
7. Hines Ward
8. Sugar Ray Leonard>
9. Chelsea Kane
10. Petra Nemcova
11. Ralph Macchio (champion)

Actual Results:
1. Mike Catherwood (1st to go) -- prediction off by 0
2. Wendy Williams -- off by 1
3. Sugar Ray Leonard -- off by 5
4. Petra Nemcova -- off by 6
5. Chris Jericho -- off by 1
6. Kendra Wilkinson -- off by 1
7. Romeo -- off by 1
8. Ralph Macchio -- off by 3
9. Chelsea Kane -- off by 0
10. Kirstie Alley -- off by 8
11. Hines Ward -- off by 4



(post-season notes) If I were to have predicted that my prediction ability is poor, I'd have been right on target. My take on the public adoration was off track, and although I should know that the judges normally don't like pretty faces, I thought they might grow out of that pettiness.

Here's my ranking of dance exhibition quality after the season ended, from lowest to highest:
1. Mike Catherwood
2. Wendy Williams
3. Kendra Wilkinson
4. Kirstie Alley
5. Sugar Ray Leonard
6. Hines Ward
7. Romeo
8. Chris Jericho
9. Petra Nemcova
10. Ralph Macchio
11. Chelsea Kane


After the first week I graded each person in the categories below and summed up my numbers multiplied by a weighting factor for each category (factors not shown here). After the 4th elimination I used a computer to adjust the weighting factors to correlate with the eliminations (factors shown below) -- and the 2nd partial prediction list below popped out of that:
x2 judges' scores
x3 my scores
x1 chemistry with partner
x3 public popularity
x0 humility
x1 rhythm
x2 flexibility
x4 personality charisma
x0 championship quality
x1 athleticism 
x1 gracefulness
x0 quickness
x1 general appearance


1. Ralph
2. Hines
3. (2-way tie)
Chris
Romeo
5. Chelsea
6. Kirstie
7. Kendra
8. Petra
9. Sugar Ray
10. Wendy
11. Mike